OIL is in a Range and the Risk is to the Downside

 

Looking at the chart below you can see OIL has been unable to break $26 since 11/18 and the longer it consolidates in this area the more likely a downside move will occur.  A close below $24 would most likely indicate the start of a downtrend.

 

USD/CHF Buying Opportunity Could be Soon

 

USD/CHF has been rallying since 9/8/11 but has given few dips recently. The last retracement came in October and the dollar has been rallying ever since.  Since 1/9/12 however the Franc has been strengthening as the Franc has been moving with the strengthening Euro.  In the same way the Euro may be at resistance against the dollar the Franc may be prepared to resume its rally against the dollar as the reserve currency of Europe.  Resistance begins at .9925 just overhead.  See the charts below.

 

Trend Traders opportunity on EUR/USD

 

Regardless of ay optimism over Greece and the fellow Eurozone nations solving their sovereign debt problem one cannot deny EUR/USD is in a downtrend.  If you are a trend trader the recent rally has brought prices to prior broken support now turned resistance.  The Euro rally has shrunk from this area after touching it and it will be interesting to see if it rolls over and resumes the trend.  The likelihood I believe is it will.  See the charts below.

Trend Tracker for January 20, 2012

 

The trend tracker can help you get on the right side of the trade.  A combination of trend following tools it indicates the general direction of the market.  The Buy/Sell area is a potential entry point in the trend based upon a pullback.

The Trend Tracker is not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these instruments and is provided for educational purposes only.

OIL can get a another buy signal @ $25.00 but it looks like its building a top rather than getting ready for the next leg higher.  If OIL and SPY correlate this could be a warning for a correction.  This rally has moved far and fast and will need to blow off some steam soon.

On the FOREX front USD/CAD may be getting some resolution soon as the symmetrical triangle grows tighter.  GBP/USD gave us an entry yesterday. See the charts. You can follow my trades on Collective2.com here

 

Symbol	Candle Chart Trend	Point & Figure Trend	Parabolic SAR	Buy/Sell Area
AUD/JPY	Sideways	Sideways	Bullish	NA
AUD/USD	Sideways	Bullish	Bullish	1.0250
EUR/JPY	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish	99.7500
EUR/USD	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish	1.2850
GBP/CHF	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish	NA
GBP/USD	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	1.5500
USD/CAD	Sideways	Bullish	Bearish	NA
USD/CHF	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish	0.9400

 

Symbol	Candle Chart Trend	Point and Figure Trend	Parabolic SAR	Buy/Sell Area
EEM	Sideways	Bullish	Bullish	NA
EUM	Sideways	Bearish	Bearish	NA
IWM	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish	75.00
OIL	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish	25.00
PSQ	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	NA
QQQ	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish	57.25
RWM	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	NA
SH	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	NA
SPY	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish	127.00

 

Take a look at the charts

 

 

 

  Have a great weekend!

Trend Tracker for January 17, 2011

 

The trend tracker can help you get on the right side of the trade.  A combination of trend following tools it indicates the general direction of the market.  The Buy/Sell area is a potential entry point in the trend based upon a pullback.

The Trend Tracker is not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these instruments and is provided for educational purposes only.

Forex:

Symbol	Candle Chart Trend	Point & Figure Trend	Parabolic SAR	Buy/Sell Area
AUD/JPY	Bullish	Sideways	Bullish	NA
AUD/USD	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish	1.0150
EUR/JPY	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	99.7500
EUR/USD	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	1.2850
GBP/CHF	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish	NA
GBP/USD	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	1.5500
USD/CAD	Sideways	Bullish	Bearish	NA
USD/CHF	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish	0.9400

 

ETFs:

Symbol	Candle Chart Trend	Point and Figure Trend	Parabolic SAR	Buy/Sell Area
EEM	Sideways	Bearish	Bearish	NA
EUM	Sideways	Bearish	Bearish	NA
IWM	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish	74.00
OIL	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish	NA
PSQ	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	NA
QQQ	Sideways	Bullish	Bullish	NA
RWM	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	NA
SH	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish	NA
SPY	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish	125.00

USD/CHF breaks its long term downtrend–but for how long?

 

USD/CHF has broken its long term downtrend on the P&F chart which should be bullish for USD long term but a few questions remain unanswered:

1. With the Swiss pegging their currency to the Euro is this just a reflection of Euro weakness rather than USD strength?

2. The pair are rapidly approaching the 61.8% retracement of the June 2010 high and the August 2011 low.  This important Fibonacci retracement could be resistance resulting in a reversal.

3. What will the Swiss do is the Euro suffers a major collapse?  When will they unplug the peg?

If they remove the peg the dollar should immediately begin to resume its selloff against the Franc which has been the case for ten years.  The Franc is viewed as a superior safe haven currency to the dollar.

See the charts below:

What’s scary is A. Gary Shilling has been so right for so long

 

A. Gary Shilling is well known for his call thirty years ago that bonds would outperform stocks and here we are right now with bonds having outperformed stocks over the lat thirty years.  He believes we are close to seeing that trend reverse but even more interesting is his call for stocks in 2012: bad.  While an air of optimism seems to be with us at the moment Shilling is more bearish than ever – see the video on CNBC’s The Kudliow report