Wednesday, March 5, 2014

$EURUSD is a dog - BBH but I don't think so

The EURUSD pair has been range bound for a while and again recently unable to break above $1.38 which has been its resistance since 10/25/13.  Right now the momentum indicators are still bullish as well as the moving averages.  If EURUSD is gong to move higher it will happen soon.  I don't own EURUSD right now but I will on the breakout if it happens.




Monday, February 24, 2014

More Euro bullish opinions

Forex: Euro Rally Could Build if EUR/USD Clears $1.3770, EUR/JPY ¥141.45 | DailyFX

Sunday, February 23, 2014

$EURJPY rally now in place

EUR/JPY has established a bullish trend and is now overbought as well.  This combination will push prices higher until short term exhaustion setting up a nice swing trade.  The hammer confirmation is a nice plus complementing the other indicators.

There's no reason for Pessimism

Another PhD economist has our nations' future calculated and his prediction isn't good. The prospects for growth are poor because of demographics, education, and more.  What can we do? 

How about leadership? These trends can be changed.  No one can predict the future reliably especially on a topic as broad and complex as the future of the United States. Let's get some better policies and leadership and we can continue to lead the world in economic growth.  If you like the pessimism enjoy the article below.

The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections

Monday, February 17, 2014

BOJ will cause the Yen to strengthen versus the Euro

While the Euro and US Dollar fight out a sloppy battle there is more definitive weakening by the Euro versus the Yen developing. The range of 138.75 to 139.75 has been a price range of consolidation before a significant move. Back in early December 2013 this area served as a consolidation period before a huge up move on 12/6 and the subsequent rally from 139 to 145. Having sold off that rally and a bounce from 137 we wait for this consolidation to end and see the next move. With the Aroon filing to rally properly for the bulls and the RSI stuck at 50 I believe the next move will be to the downside. I won't put a position on until the market shows me its cards but I believe we'll be seeing those cards soon. In less than five hours comes the BOJ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement. I anticipate a stronger Yen versus the Euro.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Aussie winning the battle of Commodity Currencies

Since the beginning of 2014 the Aussie has been working hard against other currencies to break its downtrend.  Against the Loonie in a battle of commodity currencies confirmation of a change in trend is in place.  The Aussie has successfully broken resistance, confirmed the level as support, and now moves higher in an oversold condition.

Saturday, February 8, 2014

XLE reversal opportunity

XLE's streak of five consecutive losing weeks came to an end this week with a .79% gain and an equally important "hammer".  The hammer candle in the attached chart is a potential bullish reversal candle that requires confirmation.  As a coincident indicator we use the "overbought/oversold" Williams %R indicator.  An overbought condition is bullish for the ETF and bullish conditions can remain so for extended periods of time.  Prior reversals have coincided with a small dip of the Williams %R below overbought and then a sharp reversal back to overbought.  If next week is positive for XLE we can consider this reversal confirmed and higher prices ahead.